Statistical Evaluation of the Effect of Gemfibrosil,a Cholesterol Reducing Drug,on Some Biochemical Coronary Heart Disease Risk Variables

The evaluation is based on the clinic trial with gemfibrosil (“Gevilon”, Parke-Davis) carried out in a group of 48 patients, to whom the drug was administered in the single dose of 900 mg daily during the period of 3 months. In this paper we show the results of the treatment on five biochemical Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) risk variables: Cholesterol (CHOL), High Density Lipoprotein (HDL), Triglyccrides (TGL), Uric Acid (UA) and Glucose (GL). We are concerned with a statistical model allowing to predict which and how large changes in the considered variable can be expected in a patient taking the drug. This is done considering the “regression to the mean” effect.     

Response of instream animal communities to a short-term extreme event and to longer-term cumulative impacts in a strategic water resource area,South Africa

Disturbance plays an integral part in generating heterogeneity required for ecosystem persistence, but the increased amplitude and duration of disturbances linked to drivers of global change could result in ecosystem shifts or collapse. Biomonitoring over time provides insights into trajectories of ecosystem change. The responses of two instream animal taxa to two contrasting disturbance events, a major flood event and the long-term cumulative effects of land-use changes, were assessed in 1999–2012 by quantifying variation and change in abundance of functional groups based on flow rate sensitivity, water quality and metrics of ecological condition. All metrics recovered to pre-flood conditions within seven months after the flood event. Similarly, cumulative impacts of land use effected significant decreases in some but not all metrics. Indices that did not change, including SASS total score and ASPT, were the result of insufficient consideration of the decrease in the abundance of sensitive taxa specifically, and the abundance of all taxa in general. The decrease in abundance of sensitive taxa could signal imminent collapse in certain metrics. Evidence is also provided for a shift in the structure of fish assemblages linked to the decrease and loss of taxa sensitive to ecosystem degradation caused by the longer-term impacts of land-use change.     

Assessing changes over time in healthcare provider performance: Addressing regression to the mean over multiple time points

In recent years, the evaluation of healthcare provider performance has become standard for governments, insurance companies, and other stakeholders. Often, performance is compared across providers using indicators in one time period, for example a year. However it is often important to assess changes in the performance of individual providers over time. Such analyses can be used to determine if any providers have significant improvements, deteriorations, unusual patterns or systematic changes in performance. Studies which monitor healthcare provider performance in this way have to date typically been limited to comparing performance in the most recent period with performance in a previous period. It is also important to consider a longer‐term view of performance and assess changes over more than two periods. In this paper, we develop test statistics that account for variable numbers of prior performance indicators, and show that these are particularly useful for assessing consecutive improvements or deteriorations in performance. We apply the tests to coronary artery bypass graft mortality rates in New York State hospitals, and mortality data from Australian and New Zealand intensive care units. Although our applications are to medical data, the new tests have broad application in other areas.     

Heavy metal pollution in surface water and sediment: A preliminary assessment of an urban river in a developing country

The concentration and chemical fractionation of globally alarming six heavy metals (Cr, Ni, Cu, As, Cd and Pb) were measured in surface water and sediment of an urban river in Bangladesh. The decreasing trend of metals were observed in water as Cr > Cu > As > Ni > Pb > Cd and in sediment as Cr > Ni > Cu > Pb > As > Cd. The level of studied metals exceeded the safe limits of drinking water, indicated that water from this river is not safe for drinking and/or cooking purposes. However, the investigated metals showed low mobility except for Cd and Pb which could pose a severe threat to the aquatic environment. Contamination factor (CF) and geoaccumulation index (I_geo) demonstrated that most of the sediment samples were moderately to heavily contaminated by Cr, As, Cd and Pb. The pollution load index (PLI) values were above one (>1) indicates progressive deterioration of the sediment quality. The extent of pollution by heavy metals in the river Korotoa implies that the condition is much frightening to the biota and inhabitants in the vicinity of the river as well.     

Estimating linear temporal trends from aggregated environmental monitoring data

Trend estimates are often used as part of environmental monitoring programs. These trends inform managers (e.g., are desired species increasing or undesired species decreasing?). Data collected from environmental monitoring programs is often aggregated (i.e., averaged), which confounds sampling and process variation. State-space models allow sampling variation and process variations to be separated. We used simulated time-series to compare linear trend estimations from three state-space models, a simple linear regression model, and an auto-regressive model. We also compared the performance of these five models to estimate trends from a long term monitoring program. We specifically estimated trends for two species of fish and four species of aquatic vegetation from the Upper Mississippi River system. We found that the simple linear regression had the best performance of all the given models because it was best able to recover parameters and had consistent numerical convergence. Conversely, the simple linear regression did the worst job estimating populations in a given year. The state-space models did not estimate trends well, but estimated population sizes best when the models converged. We found that a simple linear regression performed better than more complex autoregression and state-space models when used to analyze aggregated environmental monitoring data.     

Could the elongate yellow-orange nostrils of Anguilla bicolor McClelland, 1844 function as fishing lures?

The shortfin eel Anguilla bicolor has elongate, yellow nostrils tipped with orange that protrude forward above the mouth. They are a striking, highly visible feature and it is hypothesised that they function as lures to attract prey, analogous to the illicium and esca of anglerfishes and frogfishes and the lingual appendage of the alligator snapping turtle. Another possible function is as an intraspecific signalling device. The first hypothesis is favoured here.     

Comparing multiple correspondence and principal component analyses with biomechanical signals. Example with turning the steering wheel

The purpose of this article is to compare Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and a much less used method, i.e. MCA (Multiple Correspondence Analysis) with data being first changed into membership values to fuzzy space windows. For such a comparison, data from an experimental study about turning the steering wheel is used. In a didactic perspective, this article only considers one multidimensional signal with 5 components: 3 linked to the steering wheel angle and hand positions and 2 to hand effort variables. A discussion weighs out the pros and the cons of both methods with criteria such as the possibility to show complex relational phenomena, the analysis/computing time or the information loss inherent to the averaging stage (in the perspective to analyze several hundreds of large multidimensional signals).